@ Armen, I think anyone intending to show off is very likely to get into trouble. They’ll either go bankrupt or turn to shady methods to keep the income flowing.

Good point here. Big money isn’t as big as it seems as first. We usually first have the thought that something will cost a set amount, but then there is upkeep, future expansion, side purchases, purchases to protect it, and so on. Real costs are way higher than we like to think, because it makes our goals look even further out of reach.

A person with two million dollars and a set plan could then be very well off, while a person wanting ten million dollars to show off will last a ridiculously short amount of time.

I like your point about creating value regardless of condition. There is always something to provide.

For instance, I’m going to mostly stay away from U.S. companies over the next few years because:

- U.S. banks are still a complete mess and nothing has been done to prevent them from doing the same things that got them in this mess in first place.

- There are still large numbers of houses that will be going into foreclosure over the next 2 years…maybe even longer, but I can’t predict that far ahead.

- Our massive national debt and up coming deficits are going to be so massive the government will have to create very high inflation and significantly lower the value of the dollar. If the government/Fed misses their target we might even see deflation, which is rare but in some ways worse than inflation.

- There are no signs employment will be picking up (though this is usually a lagging indicator).

- China, though they maybe creating a bubble themselves, still has a lot of room to grow internally.

- Peak oil is real and most natural resources are limited, but demand is still climbing.

All of this leads me to significantly reduce my U.S. exposure and focus on commodities and to a lesser extent foreign companies. I may even do some currency trading if I feel bold enough.

There will be pieces of the U.S. economy that do well, such as manufacturing (weak dollar will help), but overall our purchasing power will decline and weaken our economy.

By no means am I arguing that I’m taking the safe route. To be honest I’m not sure there is a trully safe route like there has been in the past.

What is your 5 year prediction for the global stock market, weighted by market capitalization?