Comments on: The Monty Hall Paradox (And The Real Answer)

By: Hunter Nuttall

Hunter Nuttall — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 20:14:55 +0000

@ Linda, it’s a confusing problem, which is why 10,000 people (1,000 of them Ph.D.s) wrote in to tell Marilyn she was wrong. If that many people wrote snail mail letters, how many more thought she was wrong and didn’t bother to write, and how many more were confused? We will return to “easier to understand” programming shortly.

By: Linda Abbit

Linda Abbit — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 05:01:08 +0000

I (heart) Monty Hall.

Sorry, but you lost me. It’s late though, so maybe I’ll come back tomorrow AM after I drink my coffee.

By: Hunter Nuttall

Hunter Nuttall — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 07:01:36 +0000

@ Evelyn, I guess I should have a note saying “WARNING: Do not read in the morning before coffee!” Be careful about walking into street lamps today.

By: Evelyn Lim

Evelyn Lim — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 01:26:45 +0000

I’m reading this post in the morning too. I went like “huh”…??? I think I’d better go back to bed. I’m still not very alert. I don’t want to walk into a street lamp on my way out while trying to think about your post.

Evelyn Lims last blog post..Attract Our Travel Dreams

By: Hunter Nuttall

Hunter Nuttall — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 00:44:57 +0000

@ Urban Panther, I can see how that would infuriate them. Especially if you decided to have some fun with it and keep laughing at them every time they lost. “You bet on San Diego? Are you out of your mind? My finger was clearly guided to Carolina. I guess you just don’t know as much about football as I do!”

@ Michael, I agree that on a real game show, he wouldn’t just decide to open the door with the car behind it. (Though he could have said, “Do you want me to open door #3? It might help you out, or it might have the car!”) But then, sometimes logic puzzles aren’t meant to describe a realistic scenario.

And when we get down to thinking about the host’s intentions as if it were a real show, it gets really complicated. I don’t think Marilyn meant to have us consider any mind games, but unfortunately we have to, considering the way the problem was worded.

@ Akemi, I noticed that you don’t offer a game show reading service, so I think it would be great if Panther could complement your offerings.

@ Marelisa, but without making assumptions about the host’s intentions, you can’t say that there’s a 2/3 chance. Consider this: what’s wrong with the following logic?

“There’s a 2/3 probability that the car is behind door 1 or 3. When the host opens door 3 and you see that the car is not there, there is now a 2/3 probability that the car is behind door 1.”

What you said is correct, but only if you know that the host was going to make the offer to switch in any case, and he was going to open a door with a goat in any case (as opposed to opening a door at random, or always opening door 3, for example). Some people think these assumptions are obvious, like the assumption that the car is a better prize than the goats, but I don’t think so.

Yeah, I wrote to her. They didn’t have email then, so it was snail mail.

I wanted to use good anchor text and branding for your link, so I thought abundance queen would work!

@ Vered, yeah, I have a pretty big headache too! I ‘d like to know what anchor text everyone prefers, but I guess it’s OK if I just make up things like “abundance queen!”

By: Vered - MomGrind

Vered - MomGrind — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 00:03:10 +0000

This post gave me a headache.

“Abundance queen” – awesome!

Vered – MomGrinds last blog post..Wordless Wednesday: Mona Lisa, Enhanced

By: Marelisa

Marelisa — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:06:34 +0000

Hunter: I don’t think that you can take into account the intentions of the game show host because you have no way of knowing what his intentions are. I think it just boils down to mathematics that when you choose door 1 there’s 2/3 probability that the car is behind door 2 or 3, and when the game show host opens door 3 and you see that the car is not there, there is now a 2/3 probability that the car is behind door 2. Because 2/3 probability are better odds than 1/3 probability, you choose door 2. But then again, I know that there was a lot of controversy when Marilyn vos Savant printed this, so . . .

You were one of the people who wrote to her?

Oh, and thank you for the link and the “abundance queen” bit

Marelisas last blog post..Success – On Your Own Terms

By: Akemi - Yes to Me

Akemi - Yes to Me — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:04:21 +0000

Panther,
Maybe you can be the psychic who specializes in gambling

Akemi – Yes to Mes last blog post..A Year Without Paychecks, Part 2

By: Michael Martine

Michael Martine — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:36:51 +0000

There's no way the host wouldn't know which door really had the car, otherwise he could accidentally show you the one with the car behind it instead of a goat. I can see how it really boils down to your perception of the host's intentions: to help you win or to help you lose? Why might he do one or other? Pacing and tension, perhaps. Michael Martines last blog post..Remarkablogger Manifesto: What is Non-Negotiable?

By: Urban Panther

Urban Panther — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:29:04 +0000

Oh dear lord, and I have even had my first morning coffee. I never did like probability, and I’m a horrible bridge and poker player. One year the Boyz at work convinced me to enter the Football pool. I know NOTHING about football. Couldn’t care less actually. Needless to say, they were furious when I won. They were beyond furious when I told them how I won. I simply closed my eyes, and stabbed my finger at the list.